去年以來最好的投資品——鈷：緩慢升向100000美元的里程碑

由于需求預(yù)期保持穩(wěn)定，剛果民主共和國作為鈷產(chǎn)地難以撼動的地位令供應(yīng)前景似乎不確定，鈷價已創(chuàng)紀錄地大漲。而鈷供應(yīng)可能仍需要等待數(shù)年才會上升，原因是完全用其他金屬替換鈷是一個漫長的過程。

剛果盧本巴希一間工廠內(nèi)的生鈷卷。剛果是鈷這種金屬的主要生產(chǎn)國。 圖片來源：SAMIR TOUNSI/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

一種用于iPhone手機和電動汽車可充電電池的金屬是今年表現(xiàn)最好的資產(chǎn)之一，大漲逾20%，超過其他大宗商品。

由于需求預(yù)期保持穩(wěn)定，剛果民主共和國作為鈷產(chǎn)地難以撼動的地位令供應(yīng)前景似乎不確定，鈷價已創(chuàng)紀錄地大漲。

雖然供應(yīng)增加的前景已令鋰和銅等同樣用于電池的金屬的動能放緩，但很多投資者預(yù)計鈷的消費將繼續(xù)超過產(chǎn)出。鋰價今年大致持平，而銅價下跌逾7%。

盡管某些需要鈷制造電池和計算機芯片的科技股已下跌，但鈷價繼續(xù)上漲。

分析人士表示，剛果新的采礦法律讓那些在該國開采鈷的公司面臨又一重風(fēng)險。新法律撤銷了對這些公司的保護，增加了新的、更高的鈷稅和特許費用。一些公司對使用來自剛果的鈷持謹慎態(tài)度，因為擔(dān)心一些采礦者是兒童。這已促使一些公司尋找其他鈷來源或?qū)で箝_采過程中不違背道德底線的鈷。

但業(yè)界管理人士稱，可能仍需要等待數(shù)年鈷供應(yīng)才會上升，原因是完全用其他金屬替換鈷是一個漫長的過程。倫敦金屬交易所(London Metal Exchange)上周實物交割的鈷每噸達到94750美元，緩慢升向100000美元的里程碑。

監(jiān)于沒有可輕松獲得的投資期權(quán)以及價格迅速上漲，一些投資者對鈷持謹慎態(tài)度。自2017年年初以來，鈷價現(xiàn)在已上漲近兩倍。

其他人指出，即使電動車輛的采用率出現(xiàn)小幅放緩，或者中國相關(guān)補貼政策出現(xiàn)變化，都可能導(dǎo)致鈷價反轉(zhuǎn)。據(jù)Benchmark Mineral Intelligence，中國硫酸鈷的價格自去年年初以來已上漲逾一倍。

但很多分析師認為，實物鈷的短缺將繼續(xù)決定市場的走向，投資者可能對鈷價的上漲推波助瀾。

COBALT derives its name from Kobold, a mischievous German goblin who, according to legend, lurks underground. For centuries it vexed medieval miners by looking like a valuable ore that subsequently turned into worthless—and sometimes noxious—rubble. Once again it is threatening to cause trouble, this time in the growing market for batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), each of which uses about 10kg of cobalt. The source of mischief is no longer in Germany, though, but in China.

【機器翻譯】COBALT的名字來自Kobold，一個調(diào)皮的德國妖精，據(jù)傳說，它隱藏在地下。 幾個世紀以來，中世紀的礦工看起來像是一種寶貴的礦石，后來變成毫無價值 - 有時甚至是有毒的瓦礫?，F(xiàn)在這東西似乎有引起麻煩的威脅，那電動車電池（EV）的電池市場不斷增長，每次使用約10公斤鈷。而這次惡作劇的根源不在德國，而是中國。

It is widely known that more than half of the world’s cobalt reserves and production are in one dangerously unstable country, the Democratic Republic of Congo. What is less well known is that four-fifths of the cobalt sulphates and oxides used to make the all-important cathodes for lithium-ion batteries are refined in China. (Much of the other 20% is processed in Finland, but its raw material, too, comes from a mine in Congo, majority-owned by a Chinese firm, China Molybdenum.)

眾所周知，世界一半以上的鈷儲量和生產(chǎn)都位于一個危險的不穩(wěn)定國家剛果民主共和國。目前鮮為人知的是，用于制造鋰離子電池最重要的陰極的五分之四的硫酸鈷和氧化物在中國得到精煉。（另外20％的大部分在芬蘭加工，但其原材料也來自剛果的礦山，大部分由中國公司中國鉬公司擁有。）

On March 14th concerns about China’s grip on Congo’s cobalt production deepened when GEM, a Chinese battery maker, said it would acquire a third of the cobalt shipped by Glencore, the world’s biggest producer of the metal, between 2018 and 2020—equivalent to almost half of the world’s 110,000-tonne production in 2017. This is likely to add momentum to a rally that has pushed the price of cobalt up from an average of $26,500 a tonne in 2016 to above $90,000 a tonne.

3月14日，當(dāng)一家中國電池制造商表示，將在2018年至2020年期間收購世界上最大的金屬生產(chǎn)商嘉能可公司三分之一的鈷時，對中國抓住剛果鈷生產(chǎn)的擔(dān)憂加深 - 相當(dāng)于近一半的2017年全球11萬噸產(chǎn)量。這可能會推動鈷價上漲，將鈷價從2016年的平均每噸26,500美元拉動至每噸9萬美元以上。

It is not known whether non-Chinese battery, EV or consumer-electronics manufacturers have done similar, unannounced deals with Glencore. But Sam Jaffe of Cairn Energy Research Advisors, a consultancy, says it will be a severe blow to some firms. He likens the outcome of the deal to a game of musical chairs in which Chinese battery manufacturers have taken all but one of the seats. “Everybody else is frantically looking for that last empty chair.”

目前還不知道非中國電池，電動汽車或消費電子制造商是否與Glencore做過類似的未經(jīng)宣布的交易。 但咨詢公司Cairn Energy Research Advisors的Sam Jaffe表示，這將對一些公司造成嚴重打擊。 他將這筆交易的結(jié)果比作一場音樂劇，其中中國電池制造商占滿了位置除了其中一個席位。 “每個人都瘋狂地尋找最后一把空椅子?！?/p>

Mr Jaffe doubts the cobalt grab is an effort by Chinese firms to corner or manipulate the market for speculative ends. Instead, he says, they are likely to be driven by a “desperate need” to fulfil China’s ambitious plans to step up production of EVs.

賈菲先生懷疑鈷的戰(zhàn)爭是中國企業(yè)為了投機目的而轉(zhuǎn)向或操縱市場的努力。 相反，他表示，他們很可能受到“絕望的需求”的驅(qū)使，以實現(xiàn)中國加速生產(chǎn)電動汽車的宏偉計劃。

Others see it more ominously. George Heppel of CRU, a consultancy, says that, in addition to GEM sweeping up such a sizeable chunk of Glencore’s output, China Moly may eventually ship its Congo cobalt home rather than to Finland, giving China as much as 95% of the cobalt-chemicals market. “A lot of our clients are South Korean and Japanese tech firms and it’s a big concern of theirs that so much of the world’s cobalt sulphate comes from China.” Memories are still fresh of a maritime squabble in 2010, during which China restricted exports of rare-earth metals vital to Japanese tech firms. China produces about 85% of the world’s rare earths.

其他人認為它更不祥。咨詢公司CRU的George Heppel表示，除了要收貨的創(chuàng)業(yè)板公司，Glencore的產(chǎn)量還有很大的一部分，中國鉬業(yè)最終可能將其剛果鈷礦運抵芬蘭，而不是芬蘭，這給中國高達95％的鈷 - 化學(xué)品市場。 “我們的很多客戶都是韓國和日本的高科技公司，世界上大部分硫酸鈷都來自中國，這是他們的一大擔(dān)憂。”2010年的記憶仍然是記憶猶新，在此期間，中國限制出口 稀土金屬對日本科技公司至關(guān)重要。 中國生產(chǎn)世界稀土的85％左右。

Few analysts expect the cobalt market to soften soon. Production in Congo is likely to increase in the next few years, but some investment may be deterred by a recent five-fold leap in royalties on cobalt. Investment elsewhere is limited because cobalt is almost always mined alongside copper or nickel. Even at current prices, the quantities needed are not enough to justify production for cobalt alone.

很少有分析師預(yù)計鈷市場會很快走軟。 剛果的產(chǎn)量在未來幾年可能會增加，但最近鈷的專利使用費最近翻了5倍，可能會阻止一些投資。 其他地方的投資有限，因為鈷幾乎總是與銅或鎳一起開采。 即使在目前的價格下，所需的數(shù)量也不足以證明僅鈷生產(chǎn)是合理的。

But demand could explode if EVs surge in popularity. Mr Heppel says that, though most cobalt is currently mined for batteries in smartphones and for superalloys inside jet engines (see chart), its use for EVs could jump from 9,000 tonnes in 2017 to 107,000 tonnes in 2026.

但如果電動汽車的普及率上升，需求可能會爆炸。Heppel先生說，雖然目前大多數(shù)鈷用于智能手機電池和噴氣發(fā)動機內(nèi)的超耐熱合金（見圖表），但其用于電動汽車的用量可能從2017年的9000噸增加到2026年的107,000噸。

The resulting higher prices would eventually unlock new sources of supply. But already non-Chinese battery manufacturers are looking for ways to protect themselves from potential shortages. Their best answer to date is the other “goblin metal” closely associated with cobalt, nickel, whose name comes from a German spirit closely related to Old Nick.

由此產(chǎn)生的較高價格最終將釋放新的供應(yīng)來源。 但非中國電池制造商已經(jīng)在尋找方法來保護自己免受潛在的短缺。迄今為止他們最好的答案是另一種與鈷，鎳密切相關(guān)的“哥布林金屬”，它的名字來源于與老尼克密切相關(guān)的德國精神。

The materials most commonly used for cathodes in EV batteries are a combination of nickel, manganese and cobalt known as NMC, and one of nickel, cobalt and aluminium known as NCA. As cobalt has become pricier and scarcer, some battery makers have produced cobalt-lite cathodes by raising the nickel content—to as much as eight times the amount of cobalt. This allows the battery to run longer on a single charge, but makes it harder to manufacture and more prone to burst into flames. The trick is to get the balance right.（編輯：張鵬艷）