昨夜，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)說了哪些要點(diǎn)？

本文來自“智堡Wisburg”。

摘要

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)大幅上調(diào)了對(duì)今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期，小幅上調(diào)了對(duì)未來兩年的預(yù)期。(經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)上調(diào)，失業(yè)率預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)，通脹預(yù)測(cè)上調(diào))

預(yù)計(jì)今年通脹將觸達(dá)2.4%，但鮑威爾認(rèn)為通脹的上行是短暫的。新框架下的聯(lián)儲(chǔ)希望看到通脹小幅超調(diào)，但仍希望保持穩(wěn)定的長(zhǎng)期通脹預(yù)期。

對(duì)銀行業(yè)監(jiān)管以及SLR指標(biāo)問題不予置評(píng)，因?yàn)槲磥韼滋祚R上就會(huì)公布結(jié)果。

對(duì)于退出資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買，鮑威爾給出了晦澀的觸發(fā)條件，即“substantial further progress toward our goals”。

調(diào)整了隔夜逆回購(gòu)工具的用量，但似乎市場(chǎng)并不當(dāng)件事兒(本來就幾乎沒有用量)。

點(diǎn)評(píng)

綜合鮑威爾在發(fā)布會(huì)上的表態(tài)來看，本次會(huì)議傾向整體偏鴿派，安撫了之前敏感的市場(chǎng)。

投資者需要關(guān)注三個(gè)要點(diǎn)，第一是聯(lián)儲(chǔ)重新?lián)肀Я恕皵?shù)據(jù)依賴性”，并不斷強(qiáng)調(diào)自己將按照新的平均通脹目標(biāo)框架行事。整場(chǎng)發(fā)布會(huì)的交流內(nèi)容的很大一部分都圍繞經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)展開，雖然不少記者仍然抓著點(diǎn)陣圖幾位官員的點(diǎn)不放，但鮑威爾很快將之解讀為FOMC內(nèi)部少數(shù)的不同意見，并強(qiáng)調(diào)了FOMC整體仍預(yù)期維持利率水平不變，以遏制市場(chǎng)加息預(yù)期前移。

圖：有4位官員預(yù)計(jì)2022年就得開始加息

第二是聯(lián)儲(chǔ)雖然對(duì)今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景比較樂觀，但是對(duì)于未來兩年的經(jīng)濟(jì)走向仍然比較保守，從經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)上也能看出這一點(diǎn)。FOMC成員并不確定今年的復(fù)蘇力度是否可以延續(xù)。這和目前的市場(chǎng)預(yù)期是有較大分歧的(動(dòng)不動(dòng)就過熱、大周期和高通脹)，鮑威爾營(yíng)造出的政策當(dāng)局與市場(chǎng)參與者的預(yù)期差也帶來了“鴿派”的效果。

第三是聯(lián)儲(chǔ)現(xiàn)階段對(duì)市場(chǎng)認(rèn)知的金融穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)嗤之以鼻，聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)金融穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的考量是一個(gè)框架，而不是某個(gè)單一市場(chǎng)的表現(xiàn)。因此，各種基于單一市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)“要糖吃”的預(yù)期都是市場(chǎng)自身的意淫(鮑叔對(duì)記者OT的問題的態(tài)度很不屑)。

發(fā)布會(huì)亮點(diǎn)

問題1：有關(guān)Taper，點(diǎn)陣圖

鮑叔傻笑!Not yet!

We also understand that we will want to provide as much advance notice of any potential taper as possible. So when we see that we are on track, when we see actual data coming in that suggests that we are on track to perhaps achieve substantial further progress, then we'll say so. And we'll say so well in advance of any decision to actually taper.

如果做Taper會(huì)很提前跟大家做溝通，不要慌。

點(diǎn)陣圖的前移只是一部分官員有改變

part of that is wanting to see actual data rather than just a forecast at this point

問題2：SLR，是否影響了貨幣政策實(shí)施。

未來幾天馬上會(huì)公布結(jié)果，拒絕回答

問題3：失業(yè)預(yù)測(cè)看什么指標(biāo)?

看一系列指標(biāo)。(建議重讀Brainard的演講)

強(qiáng)調(diào)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)(SEP)中并不包含所有聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員參考的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)

問題4：經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)的調(diào)整問題，對(duì)未來經(jīng)濟(jì)很樂觀，為什么卻不暗示加息呢?

SEP只是大家預(yù)測(cè)的集合而已，這份SEP忠于我們剛剛調(diào)整的框架。

The state of the economy in two or three years is highly uncertain, and I wouldn't want to focus too much on the exact timing of a potential rate increase that far into the future. So that's how I would think about the SEP.

未來兩三年的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景不確定性很大，現(xiàn)在沒必要太早考慮加息的確切時(shí)間節(jié)點(diǎn)。

問題5：多少的通脹會(huì)讓你感到舒適?你的目標(biāo)很晦澀，會(huì)不會(huì)讓市場(chǎng)定價(jià)對(duì)通脹更低的容忍?

is talking about inflation is one thing. Actually having inflation run above 2% is the real thing.

談?wù)撏浭且换厥拢鎸?shí)的通脹又是另一回事……

That's what we'd really like to do is to get inflation moderately above 2%. I don't want to be too specific about what that means because I think it's hard to do that. And we haven't done it yet.

鮑叔看上去好像對(duì)通脹沒什么自信。

So over the years, we've talked about 2% inflation as a goal, but we haven't achieved it.

問題6：群體免疫會(huì)導(dǎo)致就業(yè)快速?gòu)?fù)蘇，為什么聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的預(yù)測(cè)還是那么保守?

There will still be some social distancing.

讓1000萬人重返就業(yè)崗位不可能在一夜之間完成。

問題7：10年期國(guó)債收益率的問題，其他央行表態(tài)擔(dān)心。OT的問題

I would be concerned by disorderly conditions in markets or by a persistent tightening of financial conditions that threaten the achievement of our goals.

The tools we have are the tools we have. 對(duì)OT的回答挺敷衍的，顯然沒當(dāng)回事。

簡(jiǎn)單來說就是可以，但沒必要。

問題8：就業(yè)市場(chǎng)族裔問題看什么指標(biāo)?疫苗注射問題

沒啥意思，看我們Brainard的那篇譯文就好。

問題9：財(cái)政政策的問題，如何影響長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)?

對(duì)短期：快速就業(yè)復(fù)蘇和保障

長(zhǎng)期：長(zhǎng)期投資、生產(chǎn)率、勞工技術(shù)

看起來鮑叔和耶倫和拜登的基建政策看似一條心了……

問題10：歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)似乎沒跟上美國(guó)，你擔(dān)心這種分化嗎?會(huì)不會(huì)拖累美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)?

復(fù)蘇確實(shí)分化了，就像上次危機(jī)后那樣。本土目標(biāo)優(yōu)先。

And we conduct policy, of course, here. Our focus is on -- our objectives are domestic ones.

We monitor developments abroad because we know that those can affect our outcomes.

記者問得不錯(cuò)，是做過功課的記者……

鮑叔回答的表態(tài)和2017年耶倫和費(fèi)希爾的論調(diào)幾乎一模一樣，即聯(lián)儲(chǔ)考慮外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的前提是外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)沖擊本土的政策目標(biāo)。

問題11：銀行業(yè)監(jiān)管問題

日后再說

問題12：加息的問題，點(diǎn)陣圖有人提前了加息預(yù)期，有爭(zhēng)論嗎?

加息的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)很明晰——雙重使命

people on the Committee broadly say that uncertainty about the forecast is very high compared to the normal level.

強(qiáng)調(diào)不確定性。

So you are going to have different perspectives from Committee participants about how fast growth will be, how fast the labor market will heal, how fast inflation will move up, and those things are going to dictate where people write down an estimate of liftoff.

大家預(yù)測(cè)不一樣。

It isn't meant to actually pin down a time when we might or might not lift off.

點(diǎn)陣圖不是告訴你說那個(gè)時(shí)點(diǎn)就要加息了。

That will be very much dependent on economic outcomes, which are highly uncertain.

再?gòu)?qiáng)調(diào)不確定性和數(shù)據(jù)依賴性。

問題13：財(cái)政政策后續(xù)

聯(lián)儲(chǔ)決定不了財(cái)政支出，財(cái)政政策側(cè)重于長(zhǎng)期投資，這是貨幣政策做不到的，財(cái)政政策可以提高潛在產(chǎn)出。

問題14：金融穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題

是一個(gè)框架，不是一個(gè)市場(chǎng)的表現(xiàn)，記者顯然沒做過功課，根本不知道聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的金融穩(wěn)定框架在其金融穩(wěn)定報(bào)告里已經(jīng)寫得很清楚了。

問題15：SEP的問題，為什么到了合意的緊急狀態(tài)還不加息?日本化?19年嫌利率太低現(xiàn)在怎么又那么鴿派了?

I would point out that over the long expansion, longest in U.S. history, ten years and eight months, rates were very low for -- they were at zero for seven years, and then never got above, you know, 2.4%, roughly.

美國(guó)剛經(jīng)歷一輪超長(zhǎng)的擴(kuò)張期，利率維持在0的水平有7年了，即便加了息也沒超過2.4%

During that, we didn't see, actually, excess buildup of debt. We didn't see asset prices form into bubbles that would threaten the progress of the economy. We didn't see the things -- we didn't see a housing bubble. The things that have tended to really hurt an economy and have, in recent history, hurt the U.S. we didn't see them build up despite very low rates. Part of that just is that you are in a low-rate environment. You are a much lower rate environment.

這一段挺有趣的，言下之意低利率根本沒有構(gòu)成任何聯(lián)儲(chǔ)擔(dān)心的金融穩(wěn)定問題——比如資產(chǎn)泡沫和債務(wù)積壓。(可能政府債務(wù)反正不用還?)

The connection between low rates and the kind of financial instability issues is just not as tight as people think it is. That's not to say we ignore it. We don't ignore it. We watch it very carefully. And we think there is a connection. I would say there is, but it's not quite so clear. We actually monitor financial conditions very, very broadly and carefully, and we didn't do that before the global financial crisis 12 years ago. Now we do. And we've also put a lot of time and effort into strengthening the large financial institutions that form the core of our financial system are much stronger, much more resilient.

話說得更死了，低利率和金融不穩(wěn)定的關(guān)系沒人們想的那么緊密。但很快鮑叔又太極了一波說我們現(xiàn)在也在時(shí)刻關(guān)注不穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的。

問題16：就業(yè)和通脹的關(guān)系

There is a relationship between wage inflation and unemployment. But that has not -- what happens is that when wages move up because unemployment is low, companies have been absorbing that increase into their margins rather than raising prices. And that seems to be a feature of late-cycle behavior.

問題17：Taper的問題

What we are saying is substantial further progress toward our goals. We will tell people when we think -- until we say -- until we give a signal, you can assume we are not there yet. And as we approach it, well in advance, well in advance, we will give a signal that, yes, we are on a path to possibly achieve that, to consider tapering. So that's how we are planning to handle it. It's not different, really, from QE3, and I think we've learned what we've learned from the experience of these last dozen years is to communicate very carefully, very clearly, well in advance, and then follow through with your communications. In this case, it's an outcome-based set of guidance, as our rate guidance is, and it's going to depend on the progress of the economy. That's why it's not appropriate to start pointing at dates yet.

別怕Taper，會(huì)提前跟你們說!

問題18：居民部門儲(chǔ)蓄釋放會(huì)影響通脹嗎?

大家出門消費(fèi)了以后，供給又有瓶頸，就會(huì)出現(xiàn)價(jià)格小幅提升，但是供給會(huì)動(dòng)態(tài)調(diào)整。所以是一次性的通脹拉升。

（智通財(cái)經(jīng)編輯：莊禮佳）